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期刊介紹：

《Risk Management and Insurance Review》（RMIR）為季刊，每年4期。2024年影響因子為1.4，CiteScore為2.5，是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理與保險(xiǎn)領(lǐng)域具有較高影響力的國際學(xué)術(shù)期刊。該刊主要發(fā)表風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理與保險(xiǎn)方面的應(yīng)用研究、政策討論以及數(shù)據(jù)分析類論文，設(shè)有Feature Articles、Perspectives與 Data Insights等欄目，為學(xué)術(shù)研究與實(shí)踐決策提供重要參考。

本期看點(diǎn)：

●洪水防護(hù)缺口：為達(dá)到統(tǒng)一的75%洪水保險(xiǎn)滲透率，歐盟整體保費(fèi)總額至少需翻倍。目前平均每年未投保洪水損失可能達(dá)到270億歐元。在提高保險(xiǎn)滲透率的假設(shè)下，損失可減少最多50%。

●家庭災(zāi)害救助：2007年至2022年間，聯(lián)邦應(yīng)急管理署（FEMA）向遭受未投保車輛洪水損失的申請者發(fā)放了超過1.6億美元的援助，申請者中近三分之二的年收入不超過3萬美元。

●PPP模式疫情保險(xiǎn)：通過跨期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)、資本積累以及將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移至金融市場，可以構(gòu)建可行的公共—私人合作（PPP）模式的疫情保險(xiǎn)。

●風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡對保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率剛性的影響：在信息不完全的情況下，若客戶需求分布在現(xiàn)行費(fèi)率處存在折點(diǎn)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡型保險(xiǎn)公司傾向于維持費(fèi)率不變，而風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中性公司則會選擇調(diào)整費(fèi)率。

●損失控制：損失控制需區(qū)分為基于金錢投入型的損失控制和基于實(shí)際努力的損失控制，并考慮損失成本函數(shù)形式，其中金錢投入型損失控制水平通常不受成本形式影響，而努力型損失控制則隨損失嚴(yán)重性增加，但在成本函數(shù)凹型情況下不一定成立。

※ 本期目錄

●The impact of risk aversion on the rigidity of insurance premiums

●The flood protection gap: Evidence for public finances and insurance premiums

●Vehicle flood damage and household disaster assistance in the United States

●Building economic resilience to pandemic risk in Switzerland

●Testing for loss severity: Impact on loss reduction

The impact of risk aversion on the rigidity of insurance premiums

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡對保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率剛性的影響

作者

Vanda Tulli（米蘭比可卡大學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)與定量方法系），Gerd Weinrich（米蘭大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融與精算科學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)系）

摘要：A risk averse insurance company that knows the quota of coverage demanded by a client at the status-quo premium but has imperfect information otherwise may choose not to change the premium, although an else identical risk-neutral company would do so, provided the variance of the company's subjective probability distribution over the quota demanded as a function of the premium displays a kink at the status quo. This is equivalent to risk aversion of order 1. When no such fixed premiums exist, the size of premium adjustment still decreases substantially as risk aversion increases. Moreover, in case of small premium adjustment costs, increasing risk aversion significantly diminishes the size of costs sufficient to keep the premium unchanged.

一家具有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡傾向的保險(xiǎn)公司，如果只掌握客戶在現(xiàn)行費(fèi)率下的承保需求，而對其他情況的信息不完全，那么它可能會選擇維持現(xiàn)行費(fèi)率不變。相比之下，在相同條件下，一家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中性的保險(xiǎn)公司則會調(diào)整費(fèi)率，前提是公司關(guān)于“客戶需求隨費(fèi)率變化”的主觀概率分布在現(xiàn)行費(fèi)率處存在折點(diǎn)。這種現(xiàn)象等價(jià)于一階風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡。當(dāng)不存在這種“固定費(fèi)率”時(shí)，隨著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡程度的提高，費(fèi)率調(diào)整的幅度仍會顯著縮小。此外，當(dāng)費(fèi)率調(diào)整成本較低時(shí)，更強(qiáng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡會大幅降低維持費(fèi)率不變所需的成本門檻。

原文鏈接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rmir.12294

The flood protection gap: Evidence for public finances and insurance premiums

洪水防護(hù)缺口：對公共財(cái)政與保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率的證據(jù)

作者

Mario Bellia（歐洲委員會聯(lián)合研究中心），Erica Francesca Di Girolamo（歐洲委員會聯(lián)合研究中心），Andrea Pagano（歐洲委員會聯(lián)合研究中心），Marco Petracco Giudici（歐洲委員會聯(lián)合研究中心）

摘要：Climate-related physical risks pose serious concerns for both public and private finances, and it is of utmost importance to contain economic losses when natural catastrophes occur. In this context, this paper models the potential economic impact of currently uninsured flood risks in the EU. It also assesses the potential reduction in economic losses obtainable by increasing the minimum level of flood insurance penetration, and the resulting increment in total premiums required to achieve this objective. First, the paper estimates the share of premiums associated with insured floods events over total property insurance premiums. Then, it investigates the extra premiums needed to close the flood protection gap by requiring all EU countries to reach a minimum level of insurance penetration. Third, the paper proposes a stylised approach to quantify economic losses associated with uninsured flood events at different levels of insurance penetration, allowing to take into account the fact that insurance protection could be partly ineffective due to defaults in the insurance sector. The model can be used to assess the size of the potential contingent loss for public finances if no preventive measures are taken to increase society's resilience against climate and weather-related risks, and compare it with a safeguard mechanism under an “average” or “worst-case” scenario. Results show that total insurance premiums collected across the EU should be at least doubled to reach a harmonised level of penetration equal to 75%. Results show that average yearly uninsured losses could amount to EUR 27 billion today. Under an alternative scenario accounting for an increase in insurance penetration, losses would decrease by up to 50%.

氣候相關(guān)的物理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對公共和私人財(cái)政都構(gòu)成嚴(yán)重威脅，因此在自然災(zāi)害發(fā)生時(shí)控制經(jīng)濟(jì)損失至關(guān)重要。本文在此背景下，模擬了歐盟當(dāng)前未投保洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)影響，并評估通過提高洪水保險(xiǎn)最低覆蓋水平所能減少的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失及實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)所需的總保費(fèi)增量。首先，本文估算了洪水事件相關(guān)保費(fèi)在全部財(cái)產(chǎn)保險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)中的占比；然后，研究了通過要求所有歐盟國家達(dá)到最低保險(xiǎn)滲透率所需的額外保費(fèi)；第三，提出一種簡化方法量化不同保險(xiǎn)滲透率下未投保洪水事件造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失，同時(shí)考慮保險(xiǎn)部門違約可能導(dǎo)致的保險(xiǎn)保障部分失效情況。該模型可用于評估若不采取措施增強(qiáng)社會應(yīng)對氣候和天氣相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的韌性，公共財(cái)政可能面臨的潛在或有損失，并與“平均情景”或“最壞情景”下的保障機(jī)制進(jìn)行比較。結(jié)果顯示，為達(dá)到統(tǒng)一的75%保險(xiǎn)滲透率，歐盟整體保費(fèi)總額至少需翻倍。目前平均每年未投保洪水損失可能達(dá)到270億歐元。在提高保險(xiǎn)滲透率的假設(shè)下，損失可減少最多50%。

原文鏈接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rmir.70001

Vehicle flood damage and household disaster assistance in the United States

美國車輛洪水損失與家庭災(zāi)害救助

作者

Steven F. Koller（美國哈佛大學(xué)住房研究聯(lián)合中心）

摘要：Vehicles are the most commonly-owned nonfinancial asset in the United States (US) and represent a relatively high share of net worth for low-wealth households. Despite rising flood exposure from urban development patterns and climate change impacts, few studies have considered household vulnerability to vehicle flood damages. This study conducts a first analysis of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Individuals and Households Program (IHP) Transportation Assistance (TA) data representing the full available universe of applications submitted and awards disbursed with reported vehicle flood damages during presidentially-declared flood disasters. Between 2007 and 2022, FEMA awarded more than $160 million to applicants who experienced uninsured vehicle flood damages. More than half of applicants were renter households, and nearly two-thirds reported income of $30,000 or less per year. Among recipients, the median IHP award represented approximately 33% of median annual household income. Lower-income applicants were relatively more likely to receive a FEMA IHP TA award and less likely to receive a Small Business Administration disaster loan. Flood depth at primary residence is positively associated with TA award amount, though some awardees reported no flooding at home. The study identifies insurance coverage gaps, risk-tolerant behavior, and limited financial support from Federal programs as contributors to vehicle owner financial vulnerability vis-à-vis flood hazard.

在美國，車輛是最常見的非金融資產(chǎn)，對于低財(cái)富家庭而言，車輛占其凈資產(chǎn)的比例相對較高。盡管城市發(fā)展模式和氣候變化增加了洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但很少有研究關(guān)注家庭對車輛洪水損失的脆弱性。本研究首次分析了聯(lián)邦應(yīng)急管理署（FEMA）個(gè)人與家庭計(jì)劃（IHP）下的交通援助（TA）數(shù)據(jù)，涵蓋在總統(tǒng)宣布的洪水災(zāi)害期間提交的所有申請及發(fā)放的補(bǔ)助情況，并記錄了車輛洪水損失。2007年至2022年間，F(xiàn)EMA向遭受未投保車輛洪水損失的申請者發(fā)放了超過1.6億美元的援助。申請者中超過一半為租戶家庭，近三分之二的年收入不超過3萬美元。在受助者中，IHP中位補(bǔ)助金額約占家庭年收入中位數(shù)的33%。低收入申請者相對更可能獲得FEMA IHP TA援助，但較少獲得小企業(yè)管理局（SBA）災(zāi)害貸款。家庭主要住所的洪水深度與TA補(bǔ)助金額呈正相關(guān)，但部分受助者報(bào)告其住所并未發(fā)生洪水。研究指出，保險(xiǎn)覆蓋不足、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)容忍行為以及聯(lián)邦項(xiàng)目提供的有限財(cái)政支持，是導(dǎo)致車輛所有者在洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)面前財(cái)務(wù)脆弱的主要因素。

原文鏈接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rmir.70002

Building economic resilience to pandemic risk in Switzerland

在瑞士構(gòu)建應(yīng)對疫情風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)韌性

作者

Anastasia Kartasheva（瑞士圣加倫大學(xué)國際經(jīng)濟(jì)與應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所；圣加倫大學(xué)金融學(xué)院；瑞士金融研究院），Eleonora Pascucci（意大利米蘭天主教圣心大學(xué)），Omid Ghavibazoo（加拿大多倫多全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究所）

摘要：This paper examines the scope for pandemic insurance in Switzerland, addressing the residual revenue losses faced by firms despite comprehensive fiscal and monetary policies during COVID-19. While these policies provided critical support, they failed to fully mitigate revenue declines from government-imposed business interruptions. We highlight how pandemic insurance could reduce firms' exposure to revenue shocks and lessen reliance on costly interventions. Drawing insights from the Swiss Elemental Pool, a successful framework of risk-pooling for natural catastrophes, we explore its applicability to pandemic risks. Given the systemic nature of pandemics, we argue that intertemporal risk-sharing, capital accumulation, and risk transfer to financial markets can support a viable public–private partnership (PPP) for pandemic insurance. While conceptually promising, such a PPP requires further empirical evaluation of costs, benefits, and policy interactions. A well-designed framework could enhance resilience to future pandemics and reduce the economic burden of ex-post interventions.

本文探討了瑞士疫情保險(xiǎn)的可行性，關(guān)注在COVID-19期間，盡管政府實(shí)施了全面的財(cái)政和貨幣政策，企業(yè)仍面臨的剩余收入損失。雖然這些政策提供了關(guān)鍵支持，但未能完全緩解因政府強(qiáng)制停業(yè)而導(dǎo)致的收入下降。本文指出，疫情保險(xiǎn)可降低企業(yè)的收入沖擊暴露，并減少對高成本干預(yù)措施的依賴。借鑒瑞士“Elemental Pool”——一種針對自然災(zāi)害的成功風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分?jǐn)偪蚣?，本文探討其在疫情風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中的適用性。鑒于疫情的系統(tǒng)性特征，本文認(rèn)為通過跨期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)、資本積累以及將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移至金融市場，可以構(gòu)建可行的公共—私人合作（PPP）模式的疫情保險(xiǎn)。盡管概念上具有潛力，這種PPP仍需進(jìn)一步對成本、收益及政策互動(dòng)進(jìn)行實(shí)證評估。若框架設(shè)計(jì)合理，將有助于增強(qiáng)對未來疫情的韌性，并降低事后干預(yù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)負(fù)擔(dān)。

原文鏈接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rmir.70003

Testing for loss severity: Impact on loss reduction

損失嚴(yán)重性檢驗(yàn)：對損失控制的影響

作者

Kar Man Tan（德國法蘭克福歌德大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與商學(xué)院）

摘要：This paper examines moral hazard in insurance when individuals are faced with different loss reduction functions and able to test for loss severity with results potentially being observed by insurers. It is important to distinguish between the types of loss reduction, that is, monetary or physical effort-based, and the functional form of loss reduction costs to account for different loss reduction strategies meant for different types of risks. With monetary loss reduction costs, individuals tend to engage in identical levels of loss reduction regardless of the functional form. With effort-based loss reduction, the individual with higher severity engages in more loss reduction although this does not necessarily hold when the functional form of loss reduction costs is concave. Identifying the optimal loss reduction has implications on insurance decisions, hence individuals can be motivated to test to discover their severity level.

本文研究了保險(xiǎn)中的道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注當(dāng)個(gè)人面臨不同的損失控制函數(shù)，并能夠檢驗(yàn)自身損失嚴(yán)重性且結(jié)果可能被保險(xiǎn)公司觀察到時(shí)的行為差異。研究強(qiáng)調(diào)，需要區(qū)分損失控制的類型，即基于金錢投入的控制和基于實(shí)際努力的控制，同時(shí)考慮損失控制成本的函數(shù)形式，以反映針對不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類型的不同控制策略。在金錢投入型損失控制中，個(gè)體通常會維持相同水平的控制，不受成本函數(shù)形式影響。而在基于努力的損失控制中，損失嚴(yán)重性較高的個(gè)體會采取更多控制措施，但當(dāng)成本函數(shù)為凹型時(shí)，這一規(guī)律不一定成立。識別最優(yōu)損失控制水平對保險(xiǎn)決策具有重要意義，因此個(gè)體可能會通過檢驗(yàn)來了解自身的損失嚴(yán)重性水平。

原文鏈接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rmir.70000

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