【文/觀察者網(wǎng)專欄作者 摩根】

這一周從混亂開始。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普宣布對(duì)所有中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品征收100%的關(guān)稅，令全球市場(chǎng)震驚。他指責(zé)北京采取了“極具敵意”的行動(dòng)，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)限制了對(duì)美國(guó)工業(yè)至關(guān)重要的稀土材料出口。

這一舉動(dòng)看起來像是一種報(bào)復(fù)——一位長(zhǎng)期癡迷于關(guān)稅的總統(tǒng)的本能反擊。市場(chǎng)立刻作出反應(yīng)，道瓊斯指數(shù)暴跌，僅一天就蒸發(fā)了近2萬億美元的市值。投資者擔(dān)心，一場(chǎng)全面貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)即將卷土重來。

不到24小時(shí)，特朗普就放軟了口氣。他在“真理社交”（Truth Social）上寫道：“別擔(dān)心中國(guó)，一切都會(huì)好的！中國(guó)不想陷入蕭條，我也一樣。”這與他先前的強(qiáng)硬言辭形成鮮明對(duì)比——從展示力量的表演，變成了自己制造的不確定感。

特朗普 資料圖

以不變應(yīng)萬變

當(dāng)華盛頓的言辭變得越來越激烈時(shí)，北京卻保持了驚人的冷靜。中國(guó)商務(wù)部發(fā)表簡(jiǎn)短聲明，警告稱：“動(dòng)輒以高額關(guān)稅進(jìn)行威脅，不是與中方相處的正確之道”，并重申，關(guān)于貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)“中國(guó)不愿打，但也不怕打”。

此后，北京幾乎保持沉默——沒有激烈的演講，也沒有戲劇性的報(bào)復(fù)。即便是在網(wǎng)絡(luò)上，最初的民族情緒爆發(fā)之后，輿論也很快平息。整個(gè)中國(guó)媒體的基調(diào)可以用一句老話來概括：

“以不變應(yīng)萬變”——以穩(wěn)定應(yīng)對(duì)萬變。

這句話精準(zhǔn)地概括了當(dāng)下中國(guó)的心態(tài)：克制、耐心，以及對(duì)局勢(shì)最終穩(wěn)定的信心。

特朗普的新一輪關(guān)稅行動(dòng)，是多年積累的故事的延續(xù)。2025年他重返白宮時(shí)，市場(chǎng)早已預(yù)料到結(jié)果——關(guān)稅。上任最初幾小時(shí)內(nèi)，特朗普就重新點(diǎn)燃了其第一任期中定義性的經(jīng)濟(jì)民族主義——只是這一次，規(guī)模更大，目標(biāo)更廣。

在2020年的“第一階段協(xié)議”之后，中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)似乎有所降溫。關(guān)稅仍在，但升級(jí)停止。拜登總統(tǒng)任內(nèi)語(yǔ)氣變得溫和，然而競(jìng)爭(zhēng)卻更深入。拜登保留了特朗普的大部分關(guān)稅，同時(shí)將重心轉(zhuǎn)向產(chǎn)業(yè)政策與聯(lián)盟合作——推出《芯片與科學(xué)法案》《通脹削減法案》，并加強(qiáng)與歐洲、日本的協(xié)調(diào)。

中國(guó)則加倍推進(jìn)自主化進(jìn)程——擴(kuò)大半導(dǎo)體項(xiàng)目、電動(dòng)汽車制造以及可再生能源供應(yīng)鏈。從中國(guó)的角度看，正是特朗普在其第一任期迫使中國(guó)完成了這一轉(zhuǎn)型。早在2018年特朗普最初對(duì)中國(guó)發(fā)起關(guān)稅和產(chǎn)品限制措施時(shí)，中國(guó)就清楚地認(rèn)識(shí)到全球供應(yīng)鏈在美國(guó)壓力面前的脆弱性。此后近十年間，中國(guó)持續(xù)推動(dòng)全面的自給自足戰(zhàn)略——從芯片、電池到農(nóng)業(yè)與航運(yùn)——確保在2025年比以往任何時(shí)候都更有能力應(yīng)對(duì)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。北京從那次沖擊中吸取了教訓(xùn)：要夯實(shí)國(guó)內(nèi)實(shí)力，讓未來的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)再無法撼動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)。因此，中國(guó)網(wǎng)友戲稱他為“川建國(guó)”——意為“建設(shè)中國(guó)的特朗普”。

2025年4月，第一次激烈的正面對(duì)抗爆發(fā)。特朗普發(fā)起了所謂的“對(duì)等關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)”，短短幾天內(nèi)，中美雙方進(jìn)入瘋狂的你來我往，關(guān)稅水平飆升至歷史高位，美股應(yīng)聲暴跌。當(dāng)全球許多國(guó)家屈服于美國(guó)壓力時(shí)，中國(guó)的堅(jiān)定立場(chǎng)贏得了包括巴西、印度在內(nèi)的全球南方國(guó)家的掌聲。一幅題為《就不跪》的中國(guó)漫畫在網(wǎng)絡(luò)上走紅，激起強(qiáng)烈的愛國(guó)情緒。經(jīng)過從日內(nèi)瓦、倫敦到斯德哥爾摩、馬德里的多輪緊張談判，雙方都呼吁冷靜。

從休戰(zhàn)到升級(jí)

市場(chǎng)一度認(rèn)為休戰(zhàn)到來，但隨后而來的沉默，其實(shí)只是新的倒計(jì)時(shí)。

到8月下旬，華盛頓擴(kuò)大了針對(duì)中國(guó)科技與航運(yùn)企業(yè)的出口管制，指控它們幫助規(guī)避半導(dǎo)體出口限制并支持“軍民兩用”供應(yīng)鏈。不久后，特朗普的顧問團(tuán)隊(duì)提出禁止中國(guó)民航飛機(jī)飛越美國(guó)領(lǐng)空的構(gòu)想，并獲得總統(tǒng)公開支持。在北京，這些舉動(dòng)被視為赤裸裸的挑釁——而中國(guó)的回應(yīng)既低調(diào)又精準(zhǔn)。

到9月中旬，中國(guó)悄然暫停了新的美國(guó)大豆采購(gòu)，并稱此舉為“市場(chǎng)調(diào)整”。事實(shí)上，這是首個(gè)有分寸的反制行動(dòng)。期貨價(jià)格迅速下跌，美國(guó)中西部的倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)設(shè)施開始爆滿。華盛頓很快明白了這一政治信號(hào)：通過打擊農(nóng)業(yè)——特朗普選舉基本盤的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)——北京表明自己可以精準(zhǔn)還擊，而無需升級(jí)對(duì)抗。

幾周后，中國(guó)港口管理部門開始審查與美國(guó)有關(guān)的航運(yùn)公司的通關(guān)手續(xù)，以“技術(shù)原因”延遲多批貨物放行。與此同時(shí)，根據(jù)美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表辦公室（USTR）在4月17日發(fā)布的《301調(diào)查報(bào)告》，美國(guó)宣布將從10月14日起，對(duì)由中國(guó)公司擁有或運(yùn)營(yíng)、懸掛中國(guó)國(guó)旗或在中國(guó)建造的船舶征收額外的港口服務(wù)費(fèi)，理由是“中國(guó)在航運(yùn)、物流與造船業(yè)中的不公平競(jìng)爭(zhēng)”。

美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)海事、物流和造船業(yè)發(fā)起“301調(diào)查”

從大豆到航運(yùn)再到航空——每一步摩擦都加深了不信任，撕裂了脆弱的平衡，也為10月的關(guān)稅沖擊埋下了伏筆。

倒計(jì)時(shí)在2025年10月10日達(dá)到高潮。特朗普宣布要對(duì)所有中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品征收全面100%關(guān)稅，計(jì)劃于11月1日生效。這項(xiàng)新措施不僅涵蓋稀土和戰(zhàn)略礦產(chǎn)，還包括汽車、電子產(chǎn)品、綠色技術(shù)組件和醫(yī)療設(shè)備——幾乎覆蓋了雙邊貿(mào)易的全部范圍。

特朗普將此描述為針對(duì)中國(guó)“經(jīng)濟(jì)侵略”的“防御性舉措”，指責(zé)北京把稀土出口管制武器化，而這些材料對(duì)美國(guó)的國(guó)防和工業(yè)至關(guān)重要。

北京的回應(yīng)克制但堅(jiān)定。中國(guó)商務(wù)部的聲明指出：“動(dòng)輒以高額關(guān)稅進(jìn)行威脅，不是與中方相處的正確之道”，并補(bǔ)充道，如果美國(guó)“執(zhí)意走錯(cuò)路”，中國(guó)將“采取堅(jiān)決措施維護(hù)自身的合法權(quán)益”。

市場(chǎng)再次動(dòng)蕩。歐洲主要股指下滑近1%，而比特幣在暴跌后因北京選擇不報(bào)復(fù)而反彈。目前，中國(guó)選擇了冷靜而非對(duì)抗——相信隨著時(shí)間推移，經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律終將讓局勢(shì)回歸有利于自己的一方。

“關(guān)稅恐怖分子”

唐納德·特朗普的第二任期始終被一個(gè)關(guān)鍵詞定義——升級(jí)。正如美國(guó)評(píng)論員所說，他已成為一名“關(guān)稅恐怖分子”：利用經(jīng)濟(jì)破壞的威脅，不是為了談判，而是為了表演。

自連任以來，特朗普把關(guān)稅變成了既是武器又是舞臺(tái)的工具——通過貿(mào)易來壓制中國(guó)。這迎合了他的基本盤，但在這場(chǎng)表演背后隱藏著深刻的缺陷：美國(guó)已經(jīng)失去了支撐真正貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)。

這種失衡在稀土領(lǐng)域體現(xiàn)得最為明顯——它是現(xiàn)代國(guó)防、能源與科技的支柱。中國(guó)目前控制著全球70%至80%的稀土精煉能力，這得益于自鄧小平提出“中東有石油，中國(guó)有稀土”以來數(shù)十年的國(guó)家投資。相比之下，美國(guó)既沒有足夠的設(shè)施，也缺乏與中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的價(jià)格優(yōu)勢(shì)。其唯一重要的礦山——加州的山口礦（Mountain Pass）——仍將大部分礦石運(yùn)往中國(guó)加工。即便投入數(shù)十億美元補(bǔ)貼，要重建完整的稀土產(chǎn)業(yè)體系也需要多年，而政治意愿顯然并不存在。

因此，特朗普的關(guān)稅揭示了一個(gè)根本矛盾：他試圖懲罰的，正是美國(guó)在軍事和科技領(lǐng)域高度依賴的國(guó)家。這是一場(chǎng)沒有籌碼的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。

當(dāng)特朗普的威脅聲在全球市場(chǎng)回蕩時(shí)，中國(guó)依然穩(wěn)如磐石。政府的沉默不是軟弱，而是自信——表明北京明白自己完全可以等待。經(jīng)濟(jì)民族主義或許能在華盛頓贏得掌聲，但中國(guó)的信息十分明確：

“以不變應(yīng)萬變”。

Trump the Tariff Terrorist

The week began with chaos. President Donald Trump shocked global markets by announcing a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, accusing Beijing of “very hostile” actions after China restricted exports of rare-earth materials vital to U.S. industry.

The move looked like revenge — a reflexive strike from a president long obsessed with tariffs. Markets instantly revolted. The Dow Jones plunged, wiping nearly $2 trillion from U.S. value in a day. Investors feared the return of a full-scale trade war.

Within 24 hours, Trump softened his tone. On Truth Social, he wrote:

“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! China doesn’t want Depression, and neither do I.”

It was a sharp contrast to his earlier rhetoric — a performance of strength giving way to self-inflicted uncertainty.

While Washington’s language grew volatile, Beijing stayed remarkably calm. The Ministry of Commerce issued a brief statement through Xinhua, warning that “wilful threats of high tariffs are not the right way to get along with China,” and repeating that China “does not want a trade war, but is not afraid of one.”

After that, Beijing said little. No fiery speeches, no dramatic retaliations. Even online, public sentiment settled quickly after an initial burst of nationalist emotion. The tone across Chinese media could be summed up by an old saying —

“以不變應(yīng)萬變” — Stay steady to navigate all changes.

That phrase captures China’s current mindset with precision: restraint, patience, and confidence that volatility will pass.

Trump’s new tariff campaign is the continuation of a story years in the making. When he returned to the White House in 2025, markets already knew what to expect: tariffs. From his first hours back in office, Trump revived the same economic nationalism that defined his earlier term — only this time, the scale was larger and the targets broader.

After the 2020 “Phase One” deal, the U.S.–China trade war appeared to cool. Tariffs remained, but escalation stopped. Under President Joe Biden, the tone softened even as rivalry deepened. Biden kept most of Trump’s tariffs while shifting toward industrial policy and alliances — the CHIPS and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and closer coordination with Europe and Japan.

China, in turn, doubled down on self-reliance — expanding semiconductor programs, electric-vehicle manufacturing, and renewable-energy supply chains. From the Chinese perspective, it was Trump himself who forced this transformation during his first term, when his initial tariffs in 2018 exposed how vulnerable global supply chains were to U.S. pressure. Since then, China has spent nearly a decade building a comprehensive strategy of self-sufficiency — from chips and batteries to agriculture and shipping — ensuring that in 2025 it is far better prepared for trade wars than it was before. Beijing took that shock as a lesson: build domestic strength so that future tariffs could no longer shake the economy. That’s why Chinese netizens jokingly call him “Chuan Jianguo” (川建國(guó)) — literally, “Trump, the Nation Builder.”

The first major showdown came in April 2025, when Trump launched what he called a “reciprocal tariff” war against the world. Within days, China and the United States were locked in an aggressive tit-for-tat that sent tariff levels soaring to record highs and knocked U.S. stocks into a tailspin. While many countries bowed to U.S. pressure, China’s firm stance drew applause across the Global South — from Brazil to India — and even inspired a viral cartoon titled “We Will Not Kneel.” After tense negotiations from Geneva to London and Stockholm, both sides called for calm. For a brief moment, markets believed a truce had arrived. But the silence that followed was only a countdown.

The calm that followed April’s “reciprocal tariff” clash did not last long. By late August, Washington had expanded its export controls on Chinese technology and shipping firms, accusing them of helping to evade semiconductor restrictions and support dual-use logistics networks. Soon after, Trump’s advisers floated the idea of banning Chinese civilian aircraft from U.S. airspace, a proposal the president publicly endorsed. In Beijing, those moves were seen as deliberate provocations — and the response was subtle but strategic.

By mid-September, China quietly halted new purchases of American soybeans, describing the suspension as a “market adjustment.” It was, in effect, the first measured act of retaliation. Futures fell sharply, storage facilities in the Midwest began to fill, and Washington immediately recognized the political signal. By targeting agriculture — a cornerstone of Trump’s electoral base — Beijing demonstrated that it could respond with precision, not escalation.

Within weeks, Chinese port authorities also began reviewing access for U.S.-affiliated shipping companies, delaying several clearances on “technical grounds.” Meanwhile, according to the Section 301 investigation released by the U.S. Trade Representative on April 17, Washington announced that from October 14 it would impose an additional port-service fee on vessels owned or operated by Chinese companies, Chinese-flagged ships, and vessels built in China, citing unfair competition in maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding.

From soybeans to shipping to skies, each new friction deepened mistrust and tested the fragile calm — setting the stage for October’s tariff shock.

The countdown reached its climax on October 10 2025, when Trump announced a sweeping 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, set to take effect by November 1. The new measures covered not only rare earths and strategic minerals but also automobiles, electronics, green-technology components, and medical equipment — virtually the full range of bilateral trade.

Trump framed it as a “defensive move” against China’s “economic aggression,” accusing Beijing of weaponizing export controls on rare-earth materials critical to U.S. defense and industry.

Beijing’s message was measured but firm. Through Xinhua, the Ministry of Commerce declared that “wilful threats of high tariffs are not the right way to get along with China,” adding that if the U.S. insisted on “going the wrong way,” China would “take resolute measures to protect its legitimate interests.”

Markets tumbled once again. In Europe, major indices slipped nearly one percent, while Bitcoin also plunged before rebounding after Beijing chose not to retaliate. For now, China has opted for composure over confrontation — confident that, with time, economic gravity will pull events back in its favour.

Donald Trump’s second term has been defined by one consistent instinct — escalation. He has become, in the words of U.S. commentators, a “tariff terrorist”: a leader who uses the threat of economic destruction not as negotiation, but as spectacle.

Since his re-election, Trump has turned tariffs into both weapon and theatre — a way to dominate China through trade. It plays well with his base, but beneath the showmanship lies a deep flaw: the United States no longer has the industrial base to sustain a real trade war.

No area shows this imbalance more clearly than rare earths — the backbone of modern defense, energy, and technology. China now controls 70–80 percent of global refining capacity, the result of decades of state-backed investment since Deng Xiaoping declared, “The Middle East has oil; China has rare earths.” The United States, by contrast, has neither the facilities nor the price competitiveness to challenge that monopoly. Its only significant mine, Mountain Pass in California, still sends most of its ore to China for processing. Even with billions in subsidies, rebuilding a full rare-earth industrial base would take years — and the political will simply isn’t there.

Trump’s tariffs thus expose a fundamental contradiction: he is punishing the very country America depends on for materials critical to its military and technology sectors. It is a trade war fought without leverage.

As Trump’s threats echo across markets, China remains steady. The government’s silence is not weakness but confidence — a sign that Beijing understands it can afford to wait. Economic nationalism may win applause in Washington, but China’s message is clear: “以不變應(yīng)萬變” — Stay steady to navigate all changes.

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