Emerging markets have shown remarkable resilience to risk-off shocks in recent years. While favorable external conditions—good luck—contributed to this resilience, improvements in policy frameworks—good policies—played a critical role in bolstering the capacity of emerging markets to withstand risk-off shocks. Evidence suggests that monetary policy implementation and credibility have improved, with central banks becoming less sensitive to fiscal pressures and relying less on foreign exchange interventions. Central banks also hold sway over domestic borrowing conditions, although spillovers from US monetary policy remain influential. On the fiscal side, countercyclicality and responsiveness to sustainability concerns have increased, though borrowing costs remain elevated in high-debt environments. Looking ahead, emerging markets with strong monetary, macroprudential, and fiscal frameworks are better positioned to navigate risk-off shocks because they benefit from easier policy trade-offs and face a lower risk and severity of capital flow reversals. In contrast, countries with weaker frameworks should avoid delaying monetary tightening when price pressures emerge, as doing so typically results in de-anchoring of inflation expectations and larger output losses. Foreign exchange interventions provide temporary relief, but they are costly. Stronger policy frameworks lessen both reliance on—and the need for—such measures. Given uneven cross-country progress and the erosion of fiscal buffers in some cases, continued efforts to strengthen policy frameworks, safeguard central bank independence, and rebuild fiscal space remain essential, as the external environment could deteriorate rapidly.

Topic: Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?

Date: November 20, 2025 (Thursday)

Time:18:30-20:30 (Beijing Time)

Language:English

Venue:Classroom 131, Chengze Garden, Peking University

本期主題：新興市場韌性：運(yùn)氣使然還是良策之功？

日期：2025年11月20日 星期四

時(shí)間：18:30 - 20:30 （北京時(shí)間）

語言：英語

地點(diǎn):北京大學(xué)承澤園131教室

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關(guān)于全球發(fā)展工作坊

Development is a common goal around the globe, diverse in practices and beliefs about appropriate philosophies and policy choice. Studies of development – defined here as progress in wellbeing measured in economic, societal and ecological terms – are interdisciplinary by nature and require continued exchange of experiences and insights from around the world.

發(fā)展是全世界的共同目標(biāo)，它意味著通過適當(dāng)?shù)睦砟钆c政策選擇，豐富實(shí)踐和信仰的多樣性。對于發(fā)展的研究——這里定義為以經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和生態(tài)術(shù)語衡量的福祉進(jìn)步——本質(zhì)上是跨學(xué)科的研究，同時(shí)這種研究需要不斷與世界各地的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行交流碰撞。

The Global Development Workshop offers a platform for speakers to share their insights from practice and research finding without prejudice to a particular theoretical conviction. Each workshop features a particular theme but together they help to foster an epistemic community between China and the rest of the world.

全球發(fā)展工作坊為演講者們提供了一個(gè)平臺(tái)，讓他們能夠在沒有特定理論信念的偏見之下，分享從實(shí)踐和研究發(fā)現(xiàn)中得出的觀點(diǎn)。每期工作坊都設(shè)有一個(gè)特定主題，把這些主題放在一起，能幫助中國與世界其他地方之間建立一個(gè)認(rèn)知共同體。