聲明：本系列文章基于原期刊目錄和摘要內容整理而得，僅限于讀者交流學習。如有侵權，請聯系刪除。

期刊介紹：

《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》為雙月刊，每年6期，每期發(fā)表文章4篇左右。2022-2023年影響影子為4.7，JCR分區(qū)為Q1，是風險與保險領域的頂級權威學術期刊。該期刊以研究不確定性下的風險承擔行為和決策分析的理論或實證文章為特色，涵蓋的主題包括：決策理論和不確定性經濟學、不確定性下的選擇心理模型、風險和公共政策、不確定性下的行為實證分析，以及對現實世界風險承擔行為的實證研究。

本期看點：

●在個體跨期決策的實證研究中，同時納入經濟學不耐性指標與心理學堅毅度量指標具有潛在價值。

●在對受訪者進行風險態(tài)度研究時，基于激勵性測量的風險容忍度更為穩(wěn)定，而基于調查的測量則表現出更高的敏感性，并在遭遇負面沖擊時出現下降。

●趨勢支配（trend dominance）：當通過圖表呈現一系列結果時，人們在評估中傾向于偏好“隨時間改善”的趨勢，即使這種偏好會導致整體福利顯著降低。但趨勢支配并不反映真實偏好。

●受試者的視覺注意力隨呈現信息變化，眼動數據不僅與偏好參數相關，還會改變對哪種決策理論更適合解釋選擇數據的推斷。

●期望管理理論（Managed Expectations Theory）：個體對結果好壞的事前概率評估可作為參考點，塑造彩票結果的事后效用。期望管理理論核心假設包括：參考點假設和人為概率假設。

●Daniel Kahneman最后一項工作削弱了近期將收入再分配簡單納入收益成本分析的論點，提示此類政策目標仍更適合通過財政政策而非監(jiān)管干預來實現。

●查詢理論（Query Theory, QT）提供了一種關于偏好構建的心理過程理論，闡釋了注意力過程和記憶動態(tài)如何導致框架效應及其他判斷與選擇異常。QT的過程性解釋——將框架效應歸因于注意力轉移及隨后的記憶檢索差異——可為PT的損失規(guī)避提供一定的心理過程解釋。

●自然選擇會使決策偏向在祖先環(huán)境中理性的選擇，但在現代環(huán)境中可能不適用，從而產生表面上非理性但規(guī)律可預測的結果。

●時間偏好：人類傾向于高估即時回報而低估同等未來回報，這一現象被稱為時間折現。人們能夠直接根據環(huán)境約束調整延遲折現，而不依賴情緒系統(tǒng)的輸入。

※ 本期目錄

第70卷 第3期

●Grit, discounting, & time inconsistency

●The evolution of risk attitudes: A panel study of the university years

●Trend dominance

●Visual formats in risk preference elicitation: What catches the eye?

第71卷 第1期

●Managed Expectations Theory: Ex ante likelihoods influence ex post utilities

●Daniel Kahneman’s underappreciated last published paper: Empirical implications for benefit-cost analysis and a chat session discussion with bots

●A meta-analysis of query theory, a psychological process account of framing effects

●Linking cognitive biases: The successes of a test case that predicted variations in endowment effect magnitudes

●Adapting temporal preference to scarcity: A role for emotion?

Grit, discounting, & time inconsistency

堅毅、折現與時間不一致性

作者

Christian K?nig-Kersting（奧地利因斯布魯克大學 銀行與金融系），Stefan T. Trautmann（德國海德堡大學經濟學研究所行為金融學教席；荷蘭蒂爾堡大學）

摘要：We study the association of the perseverance of effort and the consistency of interests components of the psychological measure of grit with economic measures of impatience and time inconsistency in the general population. We find that impatience is associated with grit through the perseverance of effort component. No association of time inconsistency with grit is found. Predicting participants’ financial and health outcomes and behaviors, we find that impatience and grit are predictive for both outcomes, but this is not the case for time inconsistency. Our findings suggest that it can be beneficial for empirical studies of intertemporal decisions to include economic impatience and psychological grit measures.

本文研究心理學“堅毅”度量的兩個組成維度——努力的堅持性與興趣的一致性——與經濟學指標中的不耐性和時間不一致性之間的關系。結果顯示，不耐性與堅毅中的努力堅持性顯著相關，而時間不一致性與堅毅無顯著關聯。進一步預測參與者的財務和健康結果及相關行為時，我們發(fā)現，不耐性和堅毅均具有顯著作用，而時間不一致性未表現出顯著影響。研究結果表明，在跨期決策的實證研究中，同時納入經濟學不耐性指標與心理學堅毅測量具有潛在價值。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09456-8

The evolution of risk attitudes: A panel study of the university years

風險態(tài)度的演變：一項針對大學生的追蹤研究

作者

Catherine Eckel（美國德克薩斯農工大學經濟學系），Rick Wilson（美國萊斯大學政治學系），Nanyin Yang（澳大利亞悉尼大學經濟學院）

摘要：We analyze a unique longitudinal dataset of university students to investigate the stability of risk preferences over a five-year period. Our findings indicate that subjects’ risk tolerance, as measured by incentivized lottery choices, tends to increase over time, while it moves in the opposite direction when assessed through a non-incentivized survey question. Furthermore, we exploit the COVID-19 pandemic to explore the impact of negative experiences and emotions on the temporal changes in subjects’ risk preferences. Our analysis reveals that, within the same group of respondents, the risk tolerance elicited by the incentivized measure proves to be more stable, whereas the survey measure exhibits greater sensitivity, declining in response to negative shocks. These results enhance our understanding of how risk preferences evolve over time and emphasize the importance of employing appropriate measurement methods when investigating risk attitudes.

我們利用一項針對大學生的獨特縱向數據集，研究了風險偏好在五年期間的穩(wěn)定性。研究結果表明，當通過激勵性彩票選擇測量時，受試者的風險容忍度隨時間呈上升趨勢；但通過非激勵性的調查問題測量時，則呈相反方向變化。此外，我們利用新冠疫情這一外生沖擊，探討了負面經歷和情緒對受試者風險偏好隨時間變化的影響。分析結果顯示，在同一組受訪者中，基于激勵性測量的風險容忍度更為穩(wěn)定，而基于調查的測量則表現出更高的敏感性，并在遭遇負面沖擊時出現下降。這些發(fā)現加深了我們對風險偏好隨時間演變的理解，并強調在研究風險態(tài)度時采用適當測量方法的重要性。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09457-7

Trend dominance

趨勢支配

作者

Markus Prior（美國普林斯頓大學公共與國際事務學院及政治學系），Talbot M. Andrews（美國康奈爾大學政府學系）

摘要：People prefer for things to get better over time when evaluating series of outcomes presented in graphs, even at the expense of substantial overall welfare. We refer to this empirical regularity as trend dominance, and demonstrate it across domains including economic growth, environmental outcomes, and the COVID vaccine rollout. We apply a succinct measurement instrument to empirically calibrate trend dominance, characterizing individual-level variation in how much total welfare individuals sacrifice in exchange for increasing trends. Across several experiments conducted on a NORC probability sample as well as convenience samples, we present evidence that trend dominance does not reflect genuine preferences. Trend dominance is, at least in part, a product of respondents struggling to identify the total benefits presented in a sequence and assuming trends continue beyond the plotted sequence. Media organizations, policymakers, and public health authorities routinely use sequence plots to illustrate forecasts and projections, but people’s evaluations of these charts often do not reflect preferences. If people internalize these (ill-considered) evaluations, or if the evaluations bias their behavior, the significance of these distortions extends to affecting behavior directly. Designers of graphs should take into account the biases people bring to visual presentations of over-time data.

當通過圖表呈現一系列結果時，人們在評估中傾向于偏好“隨時間改善”的趨勢，即使這種偏好會導致整體福利顯著降低。我們將這一經驗規(guī)律稱為趨勢支配（trend dominance），并在多個領域加以驗證，包括經濟增長、環(huán)境結果以及新冠疫苗推廣。我們使用簡潔的測量工具，對趨勢支配進行實證校準，并刻畫個體在“為獲得上升趨勢而犧牲多少總福利”上的差異。基于NORC概率樣本及便利樣本開展的多項實驗表明，趨勢支配并不反映真實偏好。趨勢支配至少部分源于受訪者難以識別序列呈現的總收益，并假設趨勢會延續(xù)至圖表之外。媒體機構、政策制定者及公共衛(wèi)生部門在展示預測和推算時，常采用序列圖表，但人們對這些圖表的評價往往并不代表其真實偏好。如果人們內化這些（缺乏深思的）評價，或這些評價影響其行為，則這種偏差的意義將直接擴展至行為層面。因此，圖表設計者應充分考慮人們在解釋時間序列數據時所帶來的認知偏差。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09454-w

Visual formats in risk preference elicitation: What catches the eye?

風險偏好引導中的可視化呈現形式：視覺注意力的作用

作者

Michelle S. Segovia（美國特拉華大學應用經濟與統(tǒng)計系），Marco A. Palma（美國德克薩斯農工大學農業(yè)經濟系），Jayson L. Lusk（美國俄克拉荷馬州立大學農業(yè)科學與自然資源系），Andreas C. Drichoutis（希臘雅典農業(yè)大學應用經濟與社會科學學院農業(yè)經濟與農村發(fā)展系）

摘要：We explore the effect of lottery presentation formats on elicitation of risk preferences using a popular probability varying task (Holt & Laury. The American Economic Review 92 (5), 1644–1655. 2002) and a payoff-varying task (Drichoutis & Lusk. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 53 (2), 89–106. 2016). The presentation formats use horizontal bars that vary either the width or height of the bars (or both at the same time) to help subjects in judging how large or small probabilities and monetary amounts are in a given choice set. These graphical formats are compared to a text only format. We complement our choice data with eye tracking data that enriches our structural models with additional information regarding how visual attention varies with the presented information. While we find no statistically significant effects of presentation formats on elicited parameters for risk preferences, we find that eye tracking information not only is associated with preference parameters, but it also changes the inferences with respect to which decision theory better fits the choice data.

本文研究彩票呈現形式對風險偏好引導的影響，采用了概率變化任務（Holt & Laury, 2002）和收益變化任務（Drichoutis & Lusk, 2016）。呈現形式通過水平條的寬度或高度變化（或同時變化）來幫助受試者判斷給定選擇集中的概率大小及金額規(guī)模。這些圖形形式與只有文本呈現的形式進行了對比。我們還結合了眼動追蹤數據，為結構模型提供額外信息，以揭示受試者的視覺注意力如何隨呈現信息變化。結果顯示，雖然呈現形式對風險偏好參數本身沒有顯著統(tǒng)計影響，但眼動數據不僅與偏好參數相關，還會改變對哪種決策理論更適合解釋選擇數據的推斷。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09455-9

Managed Expectations Theory: Ex ante likelihoods influence ex post utilities

期望管理理論：事前概率影響事后效用

作者

Richard J. Zeckhauser（美國哈佛大學肯尼迪政府學院），W. Kip Viscusi（美國范德堡大學法學院）

摘要：Daniel Kahneman, often in collaboration with Amos Tversky, developed foundational frameworks for understanding human decision-making. Building on that tradition, this article proposes that individuals’ ex ante assessments of the likelihood of good and bad outcomes serve as reference points that shape the ex post utility of lottery outcomes. In prospect theory, prior holdings act as reference points for evaluating outcomes—but probabilities themselves play no such role. This article introduces Managed Expectations Theory, which rests on two core hypotheses:

Reference Point Hypothesis: Ex ante probabilities serve as reference points for ex post utility. Specifically, more pessimistic expectations about uncertain outcomes enhance ex post utility, regardless of whether the outcome turns out to be good or bad.

Four experiments, using a nationally representative adult sample of over 1,000 participants, strongly support this hypothesis. Lower [higher] ex ante likelihoods are associated with greater ex post utility for good [bad] outcomes.

Created Likelihoods Hypothesis: Recognizing that likelihood assessments act as reference points, individuals deliberately manage these assessments to be more pessimistic than an objective or statistical “outside view”—in order to boost their ex post utilities.

Supporting this conjecture, the good outcomes participants labeled as “l(fā)ikely” occurred far more often than the bad outcomes they labeled as “l(fā)ikely.” These created likelihoods help explain a central feature of prospect theory’s probability weighting function: the underestimation of high-probability good events and the overestimation of low-probability bad events.

Daniel Kahneman與Amos Tversky合作，建立了理解人類決策的基礎框架。在此傳統(tǒng)基礎上，本文提出，個體對結果好壞的事前概率評估可作為參考點，塑造彩票結果的事后效用。在前景理論中，先前持有量作為參考點來評估結果，但概率本身并不起此作用。本文提出期望管理理論（Managed Expectations Theory），其核心假設包括：

1.參考點假設（Reference Point Hypothesis）：事前概率作為事后效用的參考點。具體而言，對不確定結果的更悲觀預期會增強事后效用，無論結果是好還是壞。

基于一項包含超過1,000名具有全國代表性的成年人樣本的四個實驗，強烈支持該假設。實驗顯示，較低（較高）的事前概率與好（壞）結果的更高事后效用相關。

2.人為概率假設（Created Likelihoods Hypothesis）：認識到概率評估充當參考點后，個體會故意使這些評估比客觀或統(tǒng)計“外部視角”更悲觀，從而提高事后效用。

支持這一假設的證據為：參與者標記為“可能發(fā)生”的好結果出現頻率遠高于標記為“可能發(fā)生”的壞結果。這種人為概率有助于解釋前景理論概率加權函數的核心特征：高概率好事件被低估，而低概率壞事件被高估。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09462-w

Daniel Kahneman’s underappreciated last published paper: Empirical implications for benefit-cost analysis and a chat session discussion with bots

Daniel Kahneman鮮為人知的最后一篇論文：對收益成本分析的實證啟示及與聊天機器人討論

作者

C. Monica Capra（美國克萊蒙特研究生大學；美國亞利桑那大學自由哲學研究中心），Thomas J. Kniesner（美國雪城大學經濟學名譽教授；德國波恩勞動經濟學研究所（IZA）；美國克萊蒙特研究生大學經濟科學系）

摘要：Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman’s last published paper is an adversarial collaboration in which he and Matthew Killingsworth reconcile conflicting empirical results from their previous research on income and reported happiness, with Barbara Mellers as a facilitator. The empirical results use quantile regression to allow for measured income heterogeneity effects that include notch points in the estimated marginal utilities of income. Our analysis examines Kahneman’s last paper’s conceptual innovations and challenges to assumptions about diminishing marginal utility of income. We review his contributions to emotional well-being measurement and employ a novel AI-simulated dialogue between the late Amos Tversky and Sir Angus Deaton to explore interdisciplinary perspectives on the findings. Our paper demonstrates how Kahneman’s final research undermines recent arguments for incorporating income redistribution simply into benefit-cost analysis, suggesting that such objectives remain better addressed through fiscal policy rather than regulatory interventions. His final published work exemplifies Kahneman’s commitment to empirical precision and theoretical flexibility, even when contradicting his earlier conclusions.

諾貝爾獎得主Daniel Kahneman的最后一篇發(fā)表論文是一項對抗性合作（adversarial collaboration）研究，他與Matthew Killingsworth和Barbara Mellers合作完成，對此前關于收入與報告幸福感研究中存在的實證結果沖突進行了整合。該實證結果采用分位回歸方法，以考慮收入異質性對邊際效用估計的影響，包括邊際效用估計中的“躍點”（notch points）。本文分析了Kahneman最后一篇論文的概念創(chuàng)新，以及對收入邊際效用遞減假設的挑戰(zhàn)。我們回顧了他在情感幸福感測量方面的貢獻，并通過一種模擬人工智能對話——已故Amos Tversky與Sir Angus Deaton的虛擬討論——探討跨學科視角下的研究發(fā)現。研究表明，Kahneman的最后工作削弱了近期將收入再分配簡單納入收益成本分析的論點，提示此類政策目標仍更適合通過財政政策而非監(jiān)管干預來實現。這篇最終發(fā)表的論文體現了Kahneman對實證精確性與理論靈活性的堅持，即便這些發(fā)現與他早期結論相矛盾。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09459-5

A meta-analysis of query theory, a psychological process account of framing effects

查詢理論的元分析：對框架效應的心理過程解釋

作者

Jordana W. Composto（美國普林斯頓大學），Shannon M. Duncan（美國賓夕法尼亞大學），Eric J. Johnson（美國哥倫比亞大學），Elke U. Weber（美國普林斯頓大學）

摘要：Query Theory (QT) offers a psychological process theory of preference construction that shows how attentional processes and memory dynamics give rise to framing effects and other judgment and choice anomalies. These same anomalies are also modeled by Prospect Theory (PT) and its functional or "as-if" account, particularly through its feature of loss aversion. Given the lack of clear evidence that loss aversion results from differences in emotional reactions to gains versus losses, it is worth asking whether QT's process account—which explains framing effects as resulting from attentional shifts and subsequent differences in memory retrieval—provides a psychological process account of the loss-aversion feature of PT. Since QT's introduction in 2007, a series of studies have examined its accounts of framing effects in risky choice, intertemporal choice, and multi-attribute decisions. The present review used meta-analytic techniques to evaluate the main claims of QT by synthesizing findings from 27 papers. Across three meta-analyses, we find that (1) decision frame significantly affects query order (d?=?0.34, CI95?=?[0.27,0.41], n?=?11,202), (2) QT mechanisms (query order and content) partially mediate the effect of decision frame on choice, and (3) manipulating query order decreases the effect of decision frame on choice from d?=?0.92 (CI95?=?[0.74,1.09], n?=?1,680) to d?=?0.39 (CI95?=?[0.25,0.53], n?=?1,720).

查詢理論（Query Theory, QT）提供了一種關于偏好構建的心理過程理論，闡釋了注意力過程和記憶動態(tài)如何導致框架效應及其他判斷與選擇異常。類似的異常現象也可通過前景理論（Prospect Theory, PT）及其功能性或“如若”解釋建模，尤其體現在損失規(guī)避（loss aversion）特征上。然而，關于損失規(guī)避是否源于對收益與損失的情緒反應差異尚無明確證據，因此值得探討QT的過程性解釋——將框架效應歸因于注意力轉移及隨后的記憶檢索差異——是否可為PT的損失規(guī)避提供心理過程解釋。自2007年QT提出以來，一系列研究考察了其對風險選擇、跨期選擇及多屬性決策中框架效應的解釋。本文采用元分析技術綜合了27篇論文的研究結果，對QT的主要主張進行評估。三項元分析結果顯示：（1）決策框架顯著影響查詢順序（d=0.34,CI95=[0.27,0.41],n=11,202）；（2）QT機制（查詢順序和內容）部分中介了決策框架對選擇的影響；（3）操控查詢順序可顯著降低決策框架對選擇的影響，從d=0.92(CI95= [0.74,1.09],n=1,680)降至d=0.39(CI95= [0.25,0.53],n=1,720)。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09458-6

Linking cognitive biases: The successes of a test case that predicted variations in endowment effect magnitudes

認知偏差的關聯：一個成功案例對稟賦效應大小差異的預測

作者

Owen D Jones（美國范德堡大學法律、腦科學與行為研究Weave家族講席教授；法學教授、生物科學教授；Weaver Family Program on Law, Brain Sciences, and Behavior項目主任）

摘要：Cognitive biases are patterned decisions that deviate from the predictions of rational-choice models. They often have profound and adverse impacts on behavior, making them important to understand. The common approach to them catalogs empirical regularities that exist but lacks a sound theoretical foundation to explain and predict why the biases exist, why they are patterned as they are, and how we can best predict new and deeper patterns. The approach described here can provide such a foundation, link cognitive biases together (as a function of common underlying psychological processes), and increase our predictive power. This article reviews a 20-year arc of research that tested whether looking at cognitive biases through the lens of evolutionary biology—essentially, at how all brains are shaped to have behavioral leanings—can illuminate the origins of biases and thereby enable useful, testable predictions. The test case centers on the “endowment effect” and led to four interconnected discoveries about how, when, and where the endowment effect arises. It culminated in the successful prediction of a very large percentage of the variance in endowment effect magnitudes across a large new set of items—something never before accomplished. The key fact is that natural selection can bias decision-making toward choices that were rational in ancestral conditions but are mismatched to modern environments, yielding outcomes that are irrational yet predictably patterned. More broadly, the success of this test case suggests that many other cognitive biases may be similarly approached and potentially linked by this predictively useful framework.

認知偏差是偏離理性選擇模型預測的規(guī)律性決策行為。它們常常對行為產生深遠且負面的影響，因此理解它們非常重要。傳統(tǒng)研究方法通常只是整理已存在的經驗規(guī)律，卻缺乏解釋和預測這些偏差存在原因、形成模式及其潛在新規(guī)律的理論基礎。本文所述的方法能夠提供這樣的理論基礎，將認知偏差聯系起來（作為共同心理過程的函數），并增強預測能力。本文回顧了長達20年的研究歷程，考察了從進化生物學角度理解認知偏差——即腦如何在進化中形成特定行為傾向——是否能夠揭示偏差起源，并生成可檢驗的預測。研究以稟賦效應（endowment effect）為測試案例，取得了四項互相關聯的發(fā)現，揭示了稟賦效應產生的機制、時機與場景。最終，研究成功預測了新一批物品中稟賦效應幅度的絕大部分差異，這在此前研究中尚未實現。核心結論是：自然選擇會使決策偏向在祖先環(huán)境中理性的選擇，但在現代環(huán)境中可能不適用，從而產生表面上非理性但規(guī)律可預測的結果。更廣泛地說，這一測試案例的成功表明，許多其他認知偏差也可能通過這一具有預測力的框架加以研究和關聯。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09460-y

Adapting temporal preference to scarcity: A role for emotion?

在稀缺條件下調整時間偏好：情緒的作用？

作者

Bastien Blain（英國倫敦大學學院實驗心理學系 情感腦實驗室；Max Planck UCL計算精神病學與衰老研究中心；法國巴黎潘提翁-索邦大學CNRS 索邦經濟中心），Laura K. Globig（美國紐約大學 心理學與神經科學系；英國倫敦大學學院實驗心理學系情感腦實驗室；Max Planck UCL計算精神病學與衰老研究中心），Tali Sharot（英國倫敦大學學院實驗心理學系情感腦實驗室；Max Planck UCL計算精神病學與衰老研究中心；美國麻省理工學院腦與認知科學系）

摘要：A critical optimization problem is how to distribute resource consumption over time. Humans tend to value immediate rewards over equivalent future rewards—a phenomenon called temporal discounting. Such imbalance can lead to poor health, education, and financial decisions. It is also a hurdle for implementing sustainability policies. A major research goal is to identify factors that influence temporal discounting, so that policymakers could develop interventions to correct for this imbalance. One such factor is available resources; scarcity may increase in temporal discounting. Another potential factor is emotion; negative emotions may lead to high temporal discounting. However, emotion and resources are not independent. For example, losing a large sum of money will lead to negative affect. Here, we take advantage of one of the largest global ‘income shocks’ in history, to tease apart the role of emotion and income on temporal discounting. We tested 1,145 individuals as the market was crashing in late March 2020 and unemployment rising and then retested 200 of those individuals as the market was recovering in June 2020. We found that income shock was strongly related to an increase in delay discounting using cross-sectional and longitudinal data. Importantly, this relationship was independent of the negative impact on affect. These findings suggest that, contrary to wide held assumptions, people directly adapt delay discounting to environmental constraints, without the need for input from the affective system. This independence may be adaptive, as affect is a noisy reflection of environmental constraints, which may lead to suboptimal choice.

資源分配隨時間優(yōu)化是一個關鍵問題。人類傾向于高估即時回報而低估同等未來回報，這一現象被稱為時間折現（temporal discounting）。這種偏向可能導致健康、教育和財務決策不佳，同時也是可持續(xù)政策實施的障礙。研究的主要目標之一是識別影響時間折現的因素，以便政策制定者能設計干預措施糾正這種偏差。可用資源是一個重要因素：資源稀缺可能增加時間折現。另一個潛在因素是情緒：負面情緒可能導致高時間折現。然而，情緒與資源并非獨立，例如，大額金錢損失會引發(fā)負面情緒。本文利用歷史上最大規(guī)模的全球“收入沖擊”之一，區(qū)分情緒與收入對時間折現的作用。研究對象為1,145名個體，測試時間為2020年3月底市場崩盤、失業(yè)率上升期間，并在2020年6月市場恢復時，對其中200名個體進行復測。結果顯示，收入沖擊與延遲折現增加密切相關，無論是橫截面還是縱向數據均如此。重要的是，這一關系獨立于負面情緒的影響。這些發(fā)現表明，與普遍假設相反，人們能夠直接根據環(huán)境約束調整延遲折現，而不依賴情緒系統(tǒng)的輸入。這種獨立性可能具有適應性，因為情緒僅是環(huán)境約束的噪聲反映，可能導致次優(yōu)決策。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09453-x

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